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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • It’s a way to infantilize and ridicule the red team candidates that’s really hard for them to dismiss. They want to be perceived as strong, noble, divinely-appointed saviors of the morality of the country. Using ‘weird’ as an attack takes the wind out of their sails. And the only effective way to counter it is to embrace and transcend it, something the red team is incapable of doing.

    From an article in WP

    A central pillar of Trump’s campaign is the idea that liberals are perverted misfits who want to tear down American values. … [Trump supporters] were strong; libs were weak. They were right; libs were wrong…

    “Weird” intrudes on that narrative. It doesn’t entirely upend it, but it does plant a seed of doubt. What if, instead of being admired or feared, they are instead being laughed at? What if, instead of edgelords, they are actually just the kids in the corner eating glue off their hands?

    also

    “He’s just a strange, weird dude,” newly-named vice presidential nominee Tim Walz (D) told an assembled group of 60,000 “White Dudes for Harris” at an online fundraiser last week. The Minnesota governor has been, if not the inventor of this tactic, its most skilled proponent.



  • (attempting to answer the question instead of shaming the questioner)

    It might have helped solve the problem if we did it 50 or 60 years ago, along with global EMP strikes to disable all the vehicles and industrial equipment, and a global commitment to return to an agrarian low-energy lifestyle. And if you prioritized the most highly industrialized cities that produce the greatest carbon per capita. But the sad truth is that, right now, it’s already too late. We have already released so much carbon into the atmosphere that we are more or less guaranteed to see 4 degrees C above pre-industrial. And if you aren’t already retired you will probably see it in your lifetime. Along the way that triggers a series of cascading feedback loops which, all-told, will likely take the planet to about 10C above pre-industrial. We continue to release something like 40 billion metric tons per year. And the best CCS facility we have, in Iceland, can sequester about 4,000 tons per year. We are racing toward the cliff with the throttle at full speed and no corrupt government scientist is going to take away my truck or make me eat bugs.

    And questions about who should die, who should be killed, and such don’t even really matter now. They sound immoral, but if the projections are right it looks like all of us who aren’t already old are going to die from climate change anyways. So pontificating on things that aren’t ever going to happen is just academic onanism.


  • Literally? No. We’re all subject to the same laws of physics.

    Perceptual reality? World view? Yes. I only know one person in real life and not online (my wife) who shares some of my views of reality. For instance, I am a doomer. I am convinced we are well into the sixth, and by all accounts the most devastating, mass extinction. Humans are clever, but we depend on a stable environment for our food. That stable environment is turning into a series of alternating droughts, floods, fires, blizzards, and other extreme weather events. TBH, I’d be surprised if our species lasts to the end of the century. Hanson figures that, after feedbacks, we are on track for 10c of warming. That’s apocalyptic. And every time scientists talk about it you hear words like ‘faster than expected’. We are doing exactly nothing to prevent it, and are, in fact, accelerating the collapse by increasing our consumption, population, pollution, and environmental destruction. COP has been talking about it for so long (almost 30 years) that we’ve missed the boat. We are well past the point where we could stop it. We’re in the ‘find out’ stage now.

    Yet people keep having kids and planning for the future like everything is going to be just fine. Can you not see what’s happening? When’s the last time you scraped bugs off your car windshield? They’re all dying out. The biosphere is collapsing around us. But sure, keep contributing to your 401K. Keep talking about how the ‘fertility crisis’ is the big issue. Keep thinking that somehow windmills and recycling are going to save the planet. Tell me more about how voting is going to fix the problem. I feel like Kate Dibiasky saying we’re all going to die while everyone around me wants to talk about their PTA, the latest social issue, or which politician they like.

    (deep breath)

    Yes. I do feel like my perception of reality is different than most people I know. I don’t know most of humanity so I can’t really say, but it sure seems like it.




  • I’ve done some blacksmithing as a hobby. The two most common ways of heating the metal are a gas or a coal forge. The coal forge normally has some sort of forced air coming from the bottom to feed the fire. The coal starts burning real smoky like, but then turns to coke and burns hotter the more air you force through it. Typically you pile some coal around the sides of the fire so it converts to coke then you scoop it into the fire as needed. Also it produces a waste product called clinker that builds up at the bottom of the fire at the tuyere (the nozzle or grate the air is forced through). It’s kind of like stone or metal and it needs to be cleaned out to keep the fire going.


  • Thanks for the correction. I remembered seeing that number but didn’t analyze it in any depth. A more detailed analysis of the market, by Freddie Mac, concluded that there were four main drivers for the recent surge in prices, and investors weren’t on the list.

    1. record low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021, and the race to beat future rate increases;
    2. limited supply from underbuilding and below average distressed sales;
    3. an increase in first-time homebuyers due to favorable age demographics; and
    4. increased migration from high-cost cities to areas that already had a housing shortage.

    Institutional investors apparently even reduced their purchases in 23 - some of them were even net sellers - because of prices and interest rates. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still villians in this scenario. I don’t think big investors should own single family homes at all. But still they aren’t as big a force as my previous comment indicated.



  • I understand your feelings of horror at the idea of what is coming. Your desire to reduce our impact on the climate is commendable. I share it and have structured my life to cause the least impact I can. I have no children. I generate my own power renewably, etc. But like I was saying, it doesn’t matter. Every bit of fossil fuel I spare is going to be used by someone else. We make Paris accords and agreements and resolutions to reduce our consumption. But they are meaningless. Every time we make a 10% or 20% reduction in emissions per capita it is negated by growth in population. Our numbers continue to increase. And the CO2 we emit goes up every year.

    The population of every other species on the planet is kept in check by limits on the resources available or they become a resource and are limited by predation. And so they live in balance with the environment, never exceeding the carrying capacity of the earth to support them. But we are clever enough to figure out how to use every available source of energy to keep increasing our population. We long ago exceeded the natural carrying capacity of the earth. We are now relying on fossil fuels to keep us alive. (I’ll skip arguing why basing the survival of your population on a non-renewable resource is a bad idea. See William Catton: Overshoot to read about that.) And so we are stuck in a catch-22 in a few different ways.

    First of all, if we just stopped using fossil fuels we wouldn’t be able to produce enough food to sustain our numbers. We wouldn’t be able to transport the food to the people. And we wouldn’t be able to store it and cook it. Oh, but we don’t have to stop, just reduce, one might say. As I already mentioned, that doesn’t work. Every reduction we make is negated by more people needing to use their smaller amount.

    The second catch-22 is the aerosol masking effect. Ironically our prodigious use of fossil fuels helps keep the earth cooler, but only as long as we continue to use them. Aerosols produced from fossil fuel use reflect a significant amount of solar radiation back into space. During the Covid-19 shutdown the reduced air traffic was enough to cause a noticeable increase in warming even though that is just one source of aerosols in the atmosphere.

    And third, everyone deserves a chance at life. We are loath to say to the young “you can’t live as well as your elders because we have to stop using energy.” And there is no politically feasible way to control the growth of a population. China tried it and look how well that worked. We cannot control our population growth. It will continue to increase until some external force acts upon us to stop it. And with more people comes more energy use.

    We already know that increasing CO2 is making climate change worse. We can’t stop increasing CO2 emissions. Ergo climate change will continue to get worse. I haven’t even mentioned how that’s going to effect us, the impacts it will have on crop production around the world. Suffice to say that no matter how much we want to fix the problem, we can’t. For decades scientists have been warning us we have to act now or it will be catastrophic. We never acted in a meaningful way. And now the consequences are upon us. There is no time to stop the car, we are already over the cliff. We just haven’t hit bottom yet.




  • So this is the Atheism community and dunking on christians is appropriate, but I just don’t see it in this case. At this point it doesn’t matter what you do. Buy an electric car, put up solar panels, grow all your food in your yard. You aren’t going to stop climate change. You aren’t even going to slow it down. According to this source we’ve already dumped over 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. This one says 2.4 trillion. About half of it has been absorbed into the oceans. The rest is driving an inexorable global warming. And we have no realistic way of removing that CO2. The best we have today is the Orca plant in Iceland which pulls 4,000 tons per year from the air. Occidental is promising another DAC plant that will remove 500,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. But given that we’re currently emitting about 40 billion tons per year, that’s not gonna do it. The climate is already reacting. People are already dying. James Hansen estimates that “Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C” unless we all just stop using fossil fuels and devote all our resources to removing CO2 from the air.

    And I don’t think there was ever another way for this to play out. Our whole history has been about finding the next better way of feeding our families and growing our population. And then we find fossil fuels. Make them into fertilizer, use them to power farm equipment, industry, wars, they looked like a gift and we used them to fuel the biggest growth of our population in history. What nation would say “no, I’d rather use mules and dung for farming. It’s better for the earth.” There was never any alternative. You could even say that it’s our purpose as a species to find and consume all the available energy the planet has to offer. Now that we have around 8 billion people on the planet we have to keep using them just to feed ourselves.

    No, I think if there were a god this would just prove that he hates us, knowing what would happen when we found fossil fuels and putting them there anyways.



  • Surprised I haven’t seen Quantum Break in here. It’s a pretty good shooter with some magic powers thrown in for fun. You don’t get much say in the story, but it still kept my interest all the way through. And it has an interesting take on time travel, woven into the story quite well. It was made by Remedy Entertainment, before Control but after Alan Wake. Also I liked how they cast real actors in the game and made them recognizable. I picked out Courtney Hope in the game from seeing her in Control, even though her character is different in QB.







  • I’ve struggled with this for my whole life (and I’m not young) but haven’t succeeded in developing my willpower much at all. I think it’s just part of your ‘personality’. In quotes because you can change your personality somewhat with therapy or other growth techniques, but it takes a lot of work and there is no guarantee it will happen.

    That said, I do use commitment devices to substitute for willpower sometimes. One that works for me is to join a class or group for exercise or other things. In my case it has worked for meditation, exercise, martial arts, and others. I find that when I wake up and feel like ‘I just want to lie around and play video games all day’ I then remind myself ‘the folks at the group will notice I’m gone, I’ll have to explain it, and It would feel better to just attend’. And so I get my exercise. Usually. If my brain can convince me I’m not feeling well I still skip out sometimes.