Good, we get more intel on their readiness so we can all relax and laugh a bit.
this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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I feel like China's missiles are quite dangerous. Assuming that they function well
Yeah, but those are more defensive, can't really use them on the offense effectively.
Missiles are good if you can back them up with actual metal to take the area you just pushed the enemy out of, otherwise they just hide out of range.
With missiles the US is way the hell out of range of basically everything, while Taiwan is in range of hitting the mainland, which is unpleasant for both China and Taiwan, but means any aggressive by China can be very painful.
YJ-12, YJ-18, and YJ-21 are pretty formidable offensive weapons.
AGEIS seems to do well defending against it, but Taiwan itself doesn't have a robust anti missile capabilities like carrier groups.
A lot of faith is put into the SM-3 system for high altitude intercepts. Thankfully it seems like Japan has some SM-3 capabilities.
They would be good offensive weapons, except how do you back them up?
They basically require China to pull a first attack, otherwise the USN backs out of theater and tries to draw China out of reach of their shore-based weapons.
Meanwhile, all their land-based weapons on Taiwan, Japan, and SK are available, and somewhat harder to sink.
If China has a good first strike, Ala pearl harbor, they have a really good chance to decide the war in their favor. If not, they're basically standing there with their dick hanging out because their whole mainland has suddenly become a massive smorgasbord of targets.
Don't even waste weapons on their navy, or not many, you can do actual damage to critical infrastructure, while the most China can do is harass stuff in the region, maybe send a missile or two closer.
This is why nobody wants to fight a war on their home ground, you can't effectively defend your everything from missiles, they're too versatile.
I also don't think they're willing to compromise their own shipping channels for the sake of taking Taiwan. I have a vested interest in Taiwan as half of my family lives there.
I also believe that China has India to worry about as well. Not commonly discussed but still a valid threat.
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