Russia plans to increase its troops along its shared borders with NATO, Lithuania's prime minister said, and Europe needs to be prepared.
  • Russia plans to increase its troops along its border with NATO, Lithuania’s prime minister said.
  • Ingrida Šimonytė said Russia is returning to a Cold War posture and Europe needs to be prepared.
  • Estonia also warned that Russia may double its troops along NATO’s border compared to 2022 figures
  • khannie@lemmy.worldEnglish
    0·
    8 months ago

    Here’s my prediction for historical purposes:

    • In the next 10 years the three Baltic nations will be invaded
    • it’s done via North West Russia, Belarus and Kaliningrad simultaneously
    • This leaves only the tiny border with Poland to defend for those states if it’s successful because subs are gonna sub any coastal attempt at a D-Day
    • Tactical, low yield nukes will be used to deter future responses because NATO has shown a strategic weakness on their desire to avoid escalation
    • It’s coordinated with an invasion of Taiwan to spread the West thin

    That’s it. That’s my prediction based on having lived through the cold war and being interested in history.

    I really fucking hope I’m wrong.

    • Vilian@lemmy.caEnglish
      2·
      8 months ago

      you are puting to much faith in their organizational capability, also logistics, the same argument was made for the 3 days military operation, also putin is going to be dead by them

    • frezik@midwest.socialEnglish
      1·
      8 months ago

      Here’s where you’re wrong: Finland. It provides easy striking distance for St Petersburg and Murmansk (which is an important naval base). Hit St Petersburg, and the Baltic states are at far less risk of being cut off.

      Strike Sevestapol, and Russia is cut off from the Atlantic.

      Balarus isn’t guaranteed to stay a Russian ally, either. That’s Lukashenko’s thing, but his grip on power could still slip away.

      • khannie@lemmy.worldEnglish
        0·
        8 months ago

        I hear you but Russia has made it clear that any existential threat will result in nuclear war so that rules out going onto their internationally recognised land without risking that.

        Taking back invaded land is a different matter as we’ve seen.

        Edit: And I’ve limited understanding on this but I thought Belarus had already agreed to become part of the Russian federation. I hold out hope they’ll move back to democracy and agree that would definitely change things strategically.

        • Vilian@lemmy.caEnglish
          2·
          8 months ago

          Russia has made it clear that any existential threat will result in nuclear war

          putin said that, kill him and his generals aren’t going to stay behind to a dead guy

        • nexusband@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          8 months ago

          A fucking wrong sneeze on Russian soil is enough for a nuclear threat. If he’s going to do it, we can’t do shit about it anyway, because he’s going to use all excuses left in the book. He’s going to spin some narrative and either Russians will actually grow a spine and refuse the order - or won’t.

          The only thing we can hope is, that they didn’t change the plutonium in the warheads so they are all duds.