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Harris holds a slight edge over Trump — and it’s driven by women, poll finds.
(www.newsfromthestates.com)
Fucking crazy that it's slight at this point...
this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2024
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America has a huge fucking problem
My thought exactly. That and somehow there are "undecided voters". Like what are you waiting for? Does Trump have to personally dump on your face before you'll be like "you know, maybe that dude isn't the best choice."
“Undecided voters” has felt like “ashamed to be Republican” voters to me for a long time.
Yep I've said it plenty. There's no undecideds, just conservatives, centrists and wilfully ignorant people too afraid to publicly admit they're Republicans.
By default Trump should have all woman voters voting against him, no matter who it is. I can't understand how any woman could look at him or his ideas and think, yes, that's best for me. Then again, I could say that about a lot of things and yet some women support them.
I read somewhere that many women will vote how their husbands and families vote, even if it's bad for themselves.
When I first becoming politically aware, I was utterly shocked by people, intelligent in some ways, saying they vote Republican because their family is Republican. Like they were voting for the Dodgers.
True of many things, probably. Peer pressure is as bad as brainwashing, or maybe a form of it.
As mistaken as I believe they are, I can see why some women support him.
Lots of single issue voters see him as the abortion ban guy. Also tons of people that don’t see “him and his ideas” per se, but are so immersed in conservative propaganda that they simply think “Trump presidency = my kids will be able buy a house and live a normal life”
Then there’s the backfire effect, where people tend to double down on their beliefs instead of correcting them when presented with contradictory data. Obviously makes it really hard to pull someone out of the cult, needs a pretty extraordinary set of circumstances in many cases.
Even then, usually it won’t stick. There’s a very well done essay, “The only moral abortion is my abortion” by Joyce Arthur, I highly recommend giving it a read. Women who faithfully protest at abortion clinics and harass other women will one day come in for their own abortion, and then be back to protesting the following day
WTF is newsfromthestates.com?
The site itself seems pretty neutral, or "left leaning" as some news bias bot would put it.
Oddly, the site takes pains to hide who is writing it.
Indirectly, it says that it's written by "statesnewsroom.com" which actually does say that it's published and written by these people Chris Fitzsimon and Andrea Verykoukis whose google searches appear to have bona fide histories as progressive journalists.
At first glance, I kind of like it, actually.
There is a deficit in state-level local news, but I'm not sure how many people would actually take the time to read all of it.
The site is just republishing news from States Newsroom network.
The source here is Minnesota Reformer.
They're all pretty much the same people.
But women love Trump! No president has ever done more for women than Trump!
*to women
"A slight edge" isn't enough.
Harris needs at least a 4 point lead to overcome the built-in Republican advantage in the Electoral College (fuck the EC).
Can you remind me why the EC has a built in advantage for republicans? Is it similar to the senate where states Wyoming must have at least one delegate and therefore Wyoming has more sway than they should?
Yes, that's pretty much it.
Sparsely populated states like the Dakotas have more votes than their population proportionally should have.
Take North Dakota vs California, for example:
North Dakota has 3 electoral votes, California has 54
North Dakota's population is about 784K, and California 39 million, or about 50 times North Dakota's population
If California had proportional electoral representation to ND's based on their population, it would have 150 electoral votes to ND's 3.
Also Southern/conservative states mostly take away the right to vote from felons for life, and therefore a large chunk of the African American vote is ineligible because of disproportionate policing of those communities. Among other problems with AAs' access to their voting rights, like gerrymandering, fewer polling stations, etc.
harris' edge, or trump being even close? seems as if both are true, huh.
Page tracking all of the polls ~~in the battleground states~~: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Edit: List specifying which state for each poll: https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/state/general-election