- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
Most people don’t. But if they keep chipping away their customers, Linux might reach a threshold where it’s more convenient to switch.
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
I find most people don’t know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I’ve talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn’t know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Changing to Linux means, people…:
- need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
- need to be aware of the actual alternative
- need to be willing to learn something new
- need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
- need to choose a Linux distribution
- need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don’t have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
Such a hard agree. My wife won’t even let me install Linux, which takes out the more technical aspects of the above.
She’s just comfortable on Windows. Most people don’t want to learn something new and even fewer actually care about privacy.
Edit: Us Linux users assume that if Windows gets bad enough people will switch to Linux, when we all should face facts that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
Rich normies.
Sure, for the mac pro line with specs that us nerds care about.
I think some of those M1 mac airs are really affordable now though. For casual use it would be a good device for a tech illiterate person.
Or a mini.
I have an M2 mini I use for iOS builds, cheap enough for me to buy and stick in the rack to use for remote builds. I got that a year ago for $600ish iirc.
Yeah man. Apple still screws people when it comes to ram and storage options of course, but the base products are actually pretty good for the money.
Something I’ve never checked for but…are there any linux installers that run from within windows? Shrink the windows partition, create a linux partition, populate it, install grub, and tell the user to reboot and choose linux? I think general lack of good ext4 fs support in windows might make things difficult, but you don’t actually need to do that part from within windows. There could be a second installer that’s triggered the first time they boot from grub.
I feel like a well supported installer like that would dramatically lower the barrier to entry. It could make dual booting windows a breeze for anyone who knows how to run an installer and reboot, which is what people actually want.
This sounds awesome idea. Not sure if there is a technical reason why this could not be done. On the other hand, Windows already has WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux, is it still called like that?). All antivirus programs would probably go nuts. Windows itself is a restricted system and some things need to be done before booting into Windows. I assume if it was possible, then this would have been done before. At least I never heard about this. The best way is to have a preinstalled Linux on hardware.
Q4OS has an installer like that, but you have to change the boot order after installation, I don’t think it uses grub.
Nice, indeed it looks like it does! Wonder if that installer could be packaged and licensed in a way that more distros could use it.
Mostly yes but there’s one other option that simplifies the whole thing: Chromebooks. They’re actually pretty decent for someone who doesn’t need much beyond a browser, a mail client, and a basic office suite.
Sure, they’re tied to Google with all that entails but they can be a real option for someone like a senior who relies on relatives for tech support.
I agree. Chromebooks are a viable choice for those who want a web terminal. I used one for about a year. Got the job done.
Until something breaks, or doesn’t have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
This was my experience years ago.
… And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it’s high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
Also (and that’s not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the “boringness” and the old Windows charme.And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can’t break my stuff, etc…
It’s the most “boring” and user friendly OS I’ve used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.But I’ve never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you’re an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say “My PC broke” and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can’t discount that.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
User-induced trauma, poor distros.
The fact those poor distros exist means yet another hurdle for the average user to switch to Linux
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never “destroyed [themselves] after a while”. Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
I’ve got the complete opposite to you. I’m in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I’ve been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn’t user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what’s updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that’s on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it’s faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
Business versions of Windows either won’t have recall or the domain controllers will be able to enforce a rule against it.
Then people move to Mac.
Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!
There’s a real opportunity here and we can either take it and run or we can let it pass us by.
What else am I missing?
Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.
Linux is roughly at 3.88% market share. You don’t think we can bump Linux adoption to 99.9% in the next six months?
We just have to keep writing these “Year of the Linux” posts every year.
You mean 50.1% !
Come on… don’t be so pessimistic!!
The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can’t get rounded corners right.
Though I agree with your overall point, I can’t see why rounded corners (or the lack of it) might be a noticeable issue.
Whenever I install Linux on someone’s computer, the first thi that they ask is always “why aren’t the corners properly rounded? I can’t use this!”
(No, this has never happened, but it would be funny, I’d get to smack them over the head)
I love how delusional people here are.
Joking lol but serious that it will never happen. Windows has waaay too much of a monopoly for that to never happen.
Like wtf, am I supposed to tell my mom to use the terminal to download ms word? Oh wait sorry you can use libre office! It’s the same but… Well it looks different. And isn’t as functional.
People around here are delusional a lot of times, but to say that windows has too much of a monopoly to lose market, is too much of an exaggeration. Microsoft has been taking unpopular decisions, newer windows versions have been facing more and more resistance, macos has been growing and taking a share of the market, some governments and smaller businesses have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses, linux usability have been improving a lot, android devices have been taking more steps into taking functionalities from desktop systems and improving usability with keyboard and mouse, a lot of computers that do simple processing have been replaced by sbcs, like raspberry pis, etc.
Windows isn’t too big to fail, and it’s not impossible that we’re close to see it starting to fall. Now, on what os would become the bigger player, that’s another story.
Fun fact: My elderly mother uses linux, and without my help. Also, she never used the terminal.
Same thing here my grandparents and some other old age people which i know using linux mint.I installed it to their pc 5 years ago and up to date,it’s works fine for them before on windows it was nighmare while they were catching ads malware while browsing the net.
some governments […] have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses
I have been hearing such news for close to two decades but not without news where many such organisations switch back to using proprietary software due to a mixture of reasons ranging from usability to politics.
Windows usage is decreasing every year. Slowly but… And it will reach a point where it will have not enough critical mass to be “THE OS” but “another OS”.
I agree that it’s not the year of the linux desktop, and that people who think it is are very naive, but you don’t need to tell anyone to use the terminal for anything for many distros.
Until you encounter some weird glitch that needs to be fixed using the terminal. It happens maybe once every couple of months for me, but it still happens. Even so, I’m considering switching fully after windows 10 goes EOL.
Better than a Windows 10 glitch that requires you to dig through 10 dialogs
You’re right but I have seen old people getting some Ubuntu/Mint installed and set up and they email & spreadsheet away just fine.
I guess the only who will have to tinker are gamers (or very specific power users?).
Others just doesn’t even know or care about the OS.
Most of the points listed here don’t matter a hoot to the average user.
True.
The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
Nobody will notice end of support for Windows 10. Why would they? Nobody noticed end of support for Windows 7, either, and it’s still up and running in many places where it really shouldn’t.
End users don’t give a crap about security updates and as long as users don’t bump into a lack of third party driver they won’t even notice a difference. And yeah, like every other time they will eventually update to the current version once more practical issues crop up. 10 to 11 isn’t even close to the harshest upgrade path MS has deployed.
However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
be informed that their computer does not support Win11
and forget about it.
That’s slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the “it just works” catagory. And they do care about that.
This isn’t the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won’t stand for it.
You’re vastly overestimating how much the average consumer cares about these things
Well… I think you are putting too much expectation on a common person. I’m pretty sure a lot of people are going to be ‘mind blown’, by the ability of the new Recall feature. They will hail it as a technological marvel. Very few people care about privacy, and even in that, very few people really understand how they can have some privacy. Complete privacy is near to impossible.
They’re definitely going to back down. I’m guessing they’re going to back down a little (maybe create an opt out for the enterprise customers?) and then claim victory, but we’ll see.
I wonder if atomic desktops would change manufacturers’ mind. We have to admit LTSes like from Ubuntu failed to make pre-installed Linux popular.
Silverblue contains too much cutting-edge software to be pre-installed as of now, but if Red Hat decides to provide a mechanism for manufacturers to better stabilize Silverblue I’d take it seriously. Automatic updates with cleanly split customization mechanisms, and the source is available. If the PC is just supposed to do web browsing with couple peripherals like a fucking printer (don’t ask me why), it might be preferable over Windows. And my relatives can’t configure Windows on their own anyway.
At the same time I don’t know why Chromebook isn’t more popular cus it’s probably good enough for 90% of use cases. (The rest is basically elderly people who want 10GB photos in their 2TB SSDs, only to lose them “accidentally”. Maybe Chromebook can do that, too, but I just can’t recommend it due to corner cases I’m not aware of. I mean, I don’t want to test Chromebooks for my relatives.)
I switched from Windows to Linux full time around Feb 2024.
I think Linux is ready for desktop use.
I switched in 2021 and I thought the same then.
I stopped using Windows in the XP era. Later on I started working in a job that required me to have a Win8 laptop. 2 years later I reverted back to Linux once I stopped working there and had Win8/10 as a game OS. But my main “serious” usage was on Linux.
I’m a Mac guy and I have a PC for gaming. I just installed Mint on my PC and it has been working great for gaming. I probably won’t need Windows ever again.
Most games work on Linux or with Steam Proton.
But some games still don’t or has kernel level anti-cheat systems.
I would just ignore those games.
There one glaring issue. Most people don’t really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.
I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it’s a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn’t just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).
It’s funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.
Confusing Linux with Lenovo is pretty funny.
My ex wife turned out to be a Lenovo. She and her new girlfriend seem very happy. /s
Must of been how they used the little red nub.
Obligatory xkcd: https://xkcd.com/243/
There’s always one!
Bro - sounds like you missed an opportunity to dual boot!
I have Linux in a Lenovo… What does it mean???
Lenovo’s, especially the older Thinkpad T-series (such as the Thinkpad T440) are excellent Linux laptops, they’re durable, upgradable and offer a smooth ootb experience with Linux systems (down to open source drivers for their fingerprint readers)
So it means u prolly don gud
Is it just me or has using a brand name as a regular noun become really common? For example, Android-based devices are just referred to as “an Android”.
wow I have never heard people being this ignorant. that sounds funnt, and a bit sad. too bad I have hp and not linux
I can’t blame them. There’s a lot out there that I still remain ignorant of. I’m sure we’re all a bit ill informed here and there.
Been seriously thinking of switching to linux for my desktop. I mostly use it for games. Today I was looking at mods for Mass Effect, and the mod manager says in all caps
- LINUX IS NOT SUPPORTED:(There’s probably going to be a lot of that sort of annoyance for years.
You might still try using Proton or Lutris to run it. It may be a pain to get working, but hopefully someone out there has a guide for the mod manager you’re using.
Nah. What hes saying its that they are not supported natively. The game is Gold on protondb, so its playable on Linux. Just use Wine to run your mods. Simple
I honestly don’t care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to…
You say that because you don’t realize the benefits:
- Better support for Linux with any new PC hardware on day 1. This includes things like USB devices, monitors, KVMs, UPS, everything.
- Better support for all commercial software in general. More software will become available and it’ll be higher quality.
- Vendors will be forced to test all their stuff on Linux which means it’ll all become more reliable and less glitchy.
- There will be more diversity in software and distros which means widespread attacks (aka hacking, worms, viruses, etc) will have less success and smaller impacts.
- The more Linux users there are the more Linux developers will result. It’s also much easier to start learning how to code on a Linux desktop than it is in Windows.
- Better security for the entire world. Linux has a vastly superior security architecture than Windows and a vastly superior track record. The more Linux users there are, the harder it will be for malicious entities to break into their PCs which translates into a more secure world.
- It’s much easier (for experienced users) to troubleshoot and fix problems in Linux than in Windows. This will lead to support teams everywhere getting frustrated whenever they have to deal with Windows users (this is already the case for many software vendors, haha). Therefore, it makes support people happy and easy going. Who doesn’t want to reach a happy, helpful person for technical support instead of the usual defiant/adversarial support tech? 😁
- The worst sorts of hardware vendors won’t be able to get away with their usual bullshit. For example, if there were enough Linux users HP wouldn’t be offering extremely invasive 2GB printer “drivers” because their Windows customers would know enough Linux users that they’d be rightfully pissed and not depressively submissive like they are now.
- When you do have a problem it will be easier to find a solution because the likelihood that someone else already had it and posted a solution will be higher (though admittedly this factor doesn’t seem to do much for Windows currently because of how obtuse and obfuscated everything is in that OS).
There’s actually a lot more reasons but that’s probably enough for now 😁
better security for the entire world…
The moment Linux takes over as a dominant desktop/laptop OS we’ll start seeing a metric ton of the windows hackers follow suit to attack us. We’ll end up in a situation where they’ll probably go after some random kernel bugs that nobody else.has found yet or just don’t think are critical/exploitable. Or they’ll just attack the biggest, most widely used distros, going after people using them and any derivative distro similar enough for their malicious tools to work on it.
In general though, it would be a good thing for Linux to become a lot more prominent in the desktop/laptop market for general users. Especially since I imagine thanks to Linux being open source, people would be able to stop these malicious actors from doing damage much quicker (even though I imagine the majority of normal people switching over would almost never update because they’re used to forced updates and not having to do it themselves).
People don’t realize this enough.
There will be just as many vulnerabilities found with Linux distros as there are with Windows as soon as there’s real interest in finding them.
Not saying we should stop linux adoption or anything, but there’s a massive illusion that Linux is more secure. It isn’t.
I mean it might be more secure, it might be less secure, we just can’t read through the source for windows, so we won’t know until linux is attacked as much as windows. It would (will?) definitely be interesting to find out.
There will be more diversity in software and distros
I wish, but I doubt it. If we get to the point where there is a mass migration from Windows to Linux, it will almost certainly be concentrated into one or maybe two big distros. Probably Ubuntu.
Today, most proprietary software vendors only support Ubuntu and RHEL. Look at AMD. The ROCm installer supports Ubuntu 22.04, RHEL 9, and SLES. That’s it. Not even modern versions of Ubuntu. And it’s extremely ornery about dependencies. Python 3.8 or 3.10 required! No 3.9! No 3.11! Trying to get it to install on any modern Debian-based distro is the ninth circle of Dependency Hell.
Right now it’s sort of up to Nvidia and Wayland. Desktop sound is in good shape, desktop color (profiles and matching) and fonts are not there yet. Ray tracing and hdr have proven how much of a second class citizen desktop Linux is, so right now the most important factor is the SteamDeck for pushing the envelope to implement new tech. Chinese and German goverments moving to Linux helps but to be honet, I think that the “office and browser” use case is pretty well covered.
Possibly. But it’s also pretty common in many instances of technology adoption that as more users come, the quality gets worse, and while open source doesn’t have to worry about a shareholder-driven profit motive driving it, it’s still easy to wind up with a muddled focus. I wouldn’t expect that Linux and all of the associated software projects that make the functional desktop are going to be an exception overall. If you’re an open source developer working on a project now, basically any user is some form of power user, and it’s easier to find consensus of what to prioritize on a project not only because Linux users tend to be better about understanding how their software works and are actually helpful in further development, they’re also likely to direct development towards features that make software more open, compatible, and useful.
Now fast forward to a future where Linux is the majority desktop OS, those power users are maybe 5% of the software’s user base, and every major project’s forum is inundated with thousands of users screaming about how hard the software is to use and, when bug reports and feature requests are actually coherent, they mostly boil down to demands for simpler, easier to understand UIs. I can easily imagine the noise alone could lead to an exodus of frustrated developers.
Some things are better for NOT trying to be the answer for everyone.
Given the nature of fediverse, this specific category of people might indeed throw away Windows for their private machines.
You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.
Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.
