From defence to trade, the incoming US president is upending the old order – and standing apart from our neighbours leaves us dangerously exposed, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland
There’s no certainty that another referendum would be in favour of rejoining. Most people have bigger problems than the green line not going up quite as fast or Tarquin not being able to do erasmus. If anything so little changing after brexit for the vast majority of people has just cemented the idea that we don’t need the EU. The prospect of getting drafted into WWIII is hardly going to help.
Taking us back in without another referendum is theoretically a possibility. It could provoke a backlash at the next election though, so even if they pushed it through before then we could just end up with Farage as our next PM and leaving again. The EU would hopefully realise this and not let it happen, since it would be a massive pain for everyone.
Even if you had another referendum, and it was in favour of rejoining, if it was just a slim margin again, are we going to want to rejoin, and will the EU want us rejoining, given the very likely prospect of calls for a third referendum?
Without the EU giving us some kind of deal more favourable than we had before (which is unlikely), or some kind of structural reform of the EU, it’s doubtful.
So serious question. Would the EU even allow Britain back in at this point? I imagine the terms would be much less favourable if they did. I imagine the pound wouldn’t be allowed anymore for a start. You want back in? Adopt the euro.
I think you could make the argument that Britain rejoining makes the EU look good - if the UK leaves and does better, it might give other countries the idea that they’ll be better off leaving too. But if the UK changes its mind and comes back after not even 10 years of being out, it might send the message to others that you’re better off staying the course.
Especially if we’re willing to come back for a worse deal than we had before we left, which I’d assume would be the case. We pissed away an amazing position within the EU, I’d be very surprised if they were willing to let us just plop back into our old role.
Would the EU even allow Britain back in at this point?
Can only guess. But If they even considered it. I expect they would want a clear majority vote. 66% or above would be my guess.
I imagine the terms would be much less favourable if they did
Likely the same as any new nation joining.
I imagine the pound wouldn’t be allowed anymore for a start. You want back in? Adopt the euro.
Like many new nations joining. That would be less simple. As Joining the Euro has economic requirements. I can actually see the UK promising to adopt the Euro one day. Then never really working to do anything beyond accept it in the UK along with GPB. Because joining the Euro is always an eventual requirement for new nations, rather than an immediate one. If Europeans can spend euros in the UK. I can’t actually see the EU forcing the UK to join any time soon.
That is of course ignoring point one is unlikely to happen.
Yeah the Euro thing is a bit of a Catch-22 I think - if a Labour government agrees to adopt the Euro, the Tories and the press will absolutely tear them to pieces, and we’ll probably end up with a Tory government again, bleating on about how they “Saved our pound” or whatever.
Assuming a true vote. Rather than one filled with false claims. (yeah, that ain’t going to happen)
Dispense with the monarchy is likely the only one unlikely to win.
While, numbers are way higher than in the past. Distrust of UK democracy still means well under 50% are comfortable with any proposed replacement. So much like brexit. Without multiple incompatible offers to replace. A vote to end our current system will fail.
And honestly, as a nation, those most opposed to the system are not those most likely to fall for the false claims of a new one.
Basically post UK history with republics. (1690s) And recent distrust in politicians. You need to agree and sell the replacement before removing the current system.
Oh I doubt it’ll ever happen in my lifetime, at 67 I’ve probably only got 20 or 30 years left anyway. But maybe my daughter will be part of a united European state.
It makes the assumption that we could do that.
There’s no certainty that another referendum would be in favour of rejoining. Most people have bigger problems than the green line not going up quite as fast or Tarquin not being able to do erasmus. If anything so little changing after brexit for the vast majority of people has just cemented the idea that we don’t need the EU. The prospect of getting drafted into WWIII is hardly going to help.
Taking us back in without another referendum is theoretically a possibility. It could provoke a backlash at the next election though, so even if they pushed it through before then we could just end up with Farage as our next PM and leaving again. The EU would hopefully realise this and not let it happen, since it would be a massive pain for everyone.
Even if you had another referendum, and it was in favour of rejoining, if it was just a slim margin again, are we going to want to rejoin, and will the EU want us rejoining, given the very likely prospect of calls for a third referendum?
Without the EU giving us some kind of deal more favourable than we had before (which is unlikely), or some kind of structural reform of the EU, it’s doubtful.
UK literally got the best deal in the history of countries joining the EU. And they are supposed to get even more? I don’t see that happening.
…
Cute that you think that Brexit will stop your involvement in WWIII.
So serious question. Would the EU even allow Britain back in at this point? I imagine the terms would be much less favourable if they did. I imagine the pound wouldn’t be allowed anymore for a start. You want back in? Adopt the euro.
I think you could make the argument that Britain rejoining makes the EU look good - if the UK leaves and does better, it might give other countries the idea that they’ll be better off leaving too. But if the UK changes its mind and comes back after not even 10 years of being out, it might send the message to others that you’re better off staying the course.
Especially if we’re willing to come back for a worse deal than we had before we left, which I’d assume would be the case. We pissed away an amazing position within the EU, I’d be very surprised if they were willing to let us just plop back into our old role.
Can only guess. But If they even considered it. I expect they would want a clear majority vote. 66% or above would be my guess.
Likely the same as any new nation joining.
Like many new nations joining. That would be less simple. As Joining the Euro has economic requirements. I can actually see the UK promising to adopt the Euro one day. Then never really working to do anything beyond accept it in the UK along with GPB. Because joining the Euro is always an eventual requirement for new nations, rather than an immediate one. If Europeans can spend euros in the UK. I can’t actually see the EU forcing the UK to join any time soon.
That is of course ignoring point one is unlikely to happen.
Yeah the Euro thing is a bit of a Catch-22 I think - if a Labour government agrees to adopt the Euro, the Tories and the press will absolutely tear them to pieces, and we’ll probably end up with a Tory government again, bleating on about how they “Saved our pound” or whatever.
Adopt the Euro, dispense with the monarchy, enrol in a European Defence Force.
Assuming a true vote. Rather than one filled with false claims. (yeah, that ain’t going to happen)
Dispense with the monarchy is likely the only one unlikely to win.
While, numbers are way higher than in the past. Distrust of UK democracy still means well under 50% are comfortable with any proposed replacement. So much like brexit. Without multiple incompatible offers to replace. A vote to end our current system will fail.
And honestly, as a nation, those most opposed to the system are not those most likely to fall for the false claims of a new one.
Basically post UK history with republics. (1690s) And recent distrust in politicians. You need to agree and sell the replacement before removing the current system.
Oh I doubt it’ll ever happen in my lifetime, at 67 I’ve probably only got 20 or 30 years left anyway. But maybe my daughter will be part of a united European state.
I wish her the best.
Honestly, back in the 80-90s I had the same wish. And in the late 90s honestly thought we were heading that way.
Son is now 34. Honestly question if he will live long enough.