We want neither NATO nor America in the Black Sea," said Ercüment Tatlioglu, the commander of the Turkish Navy, shortly afterwards. In any case, the Montreux Treaty restricts the access of military vessels from non-neighboring countries in times of war.

Coskun, who worked as a diplomat for decades, describes a kind of stalemate in which Russia’s supremacy at sea is eroding, but the West — above all the U.S. — cannot establish a presence apart from the three NATO neighbors, of which Turkey has the strongest military resources.

Its position as the dominant naval power in the Black Sea will be strengthened the longer the current trend continues, says Coskun. But the extent to which Washington and Brussels see this as a strategic advantage depends on how trust develops with Turkey, the most complicated partner.