I like the part where the author completely ignores the devastation in Taiwan were a war to erupt over it.
Americans don’t care about their proxies.
14 upvotes in 10 minutes? something fishy going on 🤔
We could probably get one of the admins to check the logs to see what accounts upvoted.
these people don’t treat wars like what they really are, they treat them like games or fun little outings.
lol “We don’t want to live in a world where the bullies take whatever they want.” Says the bullies that has spent over a century taking whatever they want. This feels like them trying to prepare the US people for a massive loss they know is very likely. Then frame it as a “we HAD to do something to fight off big bad see see pee.” When if it weren’t for US bullshit Taiwan would be closer to a peaceful reunification if not already unified by now.
The US got less than 18 months before the dreaded 2025 estimation of the US loosing any hope of going up against China’s military. They are gonna beat those drums harder and harder. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were already too late. China has already beat the west to hypersonic missiles. The J35 is an actual function stealth fighter compared to the F35 glorified paperweight. The US Navy heavily reliant on aircraft carriers which are primarily only good for harassing small under developed nations with not way to fight back. Shit they can’t even send a sub to threaten them without accidentally crashing it and limping home.
Incredible lack of self awareness there to talk about bullies doing whatever they want. And yeah, as I recall, KMT was in the process of talks with the mainland regarding peaceful reunification in 2014 when US ran the sunflower revolution. The deal was that Taiwan would remain autonomous and have a representative in the mainland government. Basically, it would’ve been effectively maintaining the status quo, but Taiwan would officially renounce any talks of separatism and join the official government.
Given how things are going for US in Ukraine, I think it’s pretty clear that US is in no position to take on China. US can’t even keep up with Russia in terms of industrial production, and China absolutely dwarfs Russia in that regard. The main thing Ukraine showed is that it’s industry and logistics that matter the most in a peer conflict. US would quickly run through its existing stocks trying to take on China, and then it would be completely fucked. Not only that, but as this article shows, a lot of supply chains Pentagon uses are ultimately dependent on China. In case of an open war, US would be cut off from many critical things it needs which would be catastrophic.
It looks like this is all finally starting to sink in for the people in the military and why we’re starting to see articles like this popping up. This article is basically an open admission that if push comes to shove then US will not gamble its military position defending Taiwan. Everybody in Taiwan needs to take note of this, because if they have any delusions that US would provide them with any meaningful aid then they’re absolutely delusional.
I imagine that the Ukraine experience will only harden this position within US military and the MIC. It’s already becoming clear that US military power is much more limited than people thought, and that will affect US weapons sales. Gonna be hard to peddle stuff like Patriot when it’s been shown to be completely ineffectual. US can still say that they haven’t used their most advanced weapons in Ukraine, so those are still viable. However, if they went up against China and got their asses handed to them that would definitively expose that the emperor has no clothes to the whole world. Hence, direct war with China or Russia has to be avoided at all costs.
Finally, it’s not possible to do what they’re doing in Ukraine in Taiwan because it’s an island. The west can pump weapons and supplies into Ukraine via the borders, but China will blockade the ports in Taiwan, and the only option to counter that is direct engagement. So, there’s no possibility to turn that into a proxy war.
I do think that this underselling the United States a little bit, if Amerikkka does decide to go directly to war with China it will actually mobilize its economy, which would help quite a bit. Of course, China would also probably mobilize its economy so I doubt the final outcome would be any different
They’d basically have to, but US will have two big problems there.
First, it’s going to be hard to convince the public that US actually has to go to a real war over Taiwan. When push comes to shove, people in US just don’t actually care about Taiwan that much. It’s one thing when US government fucks around the globe and there’s no perceptible change at home, it’s quite another to say that US has to go on a war footing because US has to fight over some small island most people in US couldn’t find on a map. I really can’t see that being possible politically, especially in the face of the Ukrainian debacle and a looming recession.
Second, US no longer has end to end domestic supply chains that it controls. Thanks to wonders of globalization, China has become a central piece to many supply chains US economy depends on including military production. This article was recently talking about the scale of the problem for US. In case of an open conflict, US would be immediately cut off from this and it would be an economic disaster. And of course, it’s pretty clear that US has no hope of keeping up with China in terms of actual military production either.
So, any fantasies US politicians might entertain about having a war with China are completely divorced from reality. While this kind of idiotic move might’ve been possible before Ukraine, I expect it’s going to be a a non starter now.
We have got to get the admins to look into what’s going on with all these random upvotes out of no where
China has already beat the west to hypersonic missiles. The J35 is an actual function stealth fighter compared to the F35 glorified paperweight
Which reminds me, whatever happened to that yankee drone spaceplane thing? X-31 I think it wa called. I remember it being rather spooky
I don’t have any comments about this specific post but i’ve noticed you’ve been posting quite a lot lately and just wanted to take a moment to say thank you for all of your hard work finding and sharing all of these interesting and intriguing articles with us and keep it up, i’m sure we all appreciate your contributions here.
🫡
The comments on that article are wild. It’s a strange mix of realistically evaluating China’s improving capabilities and reconciling that with deteriorating US hegemony. All while the undercurrent of nationalism and American Exceptionalism looms in the background like a puppeteer guiding their thoughts…
I mean I don’t jive with the “USA #1” shit, but let’s be realistic. China has a military with both hardware and personnel structure built around Russian platforms and systems. About 35% of their current standing military is 2 year conscripts. We’re currently watching our hardware from 2-3 generations ago annihilate Russia in Ukraine. I think it’s safe to say that invading Taiwan would be WAY worse for China than for us.
Ah yes, the triumphant Ukranian army, winning so hard they’re resorting to sending amputees back to the front lines.
I know that not everyone has heard of hypersonic missiles, but anyone who has shouldn’t be surprised when the pacific carrier fleet becomes a new coral reef.
Ukraine is being devastated, and the US weapons have proven again and again to be nothing but a paper tiger.
You have to be kidding, right? A paper tiger? US javelins alone were responsible for utterly crippling the Russian air superiority.
It seems we have transdimensional traveller here. Seems from very far dimension because in this one Javelin isn’t even anti air missile lmao.
It’s really shocking how propagandised the masses are. I’ve never seen anything quite like this and I’m old.
My bad, I misspoke. Us javelins are anti-tank. UK javelins were anti air.
Source? Even if I search “uk anti air javelin”, the results that come up say they’re anti-tank:
In my quickness to reply, I mixed up Patriot system with javelin. I didn’t mean that the UK were sending anti air, just that the UK once HAD a SMAA that was called a Javelin. Entirely my fault.
They also suck as anti-tank weapon. A tank has a “slightly” larger range and reactive armor to counter those kinds of missle. The russian military did not sleep the last decades.
The Russian air superiorty that still exists and is causing the US to greenlight German trainers to train Ukrainian pilots on US fighters so that maybe in a few months there might be some counter to it? That Russian air superiorty?
All of the mighty US Wanderwuffe were destroyed or didn’t cause much in terms of advancing, and as all of you liberals like to say, Russia was using shitty goatherder Soviet weapons. Furthermore if you actually read the article you would see that the US is highly deindustrialised and cannot sustain a prolonged war and that’s not going to change because those are the effects of neoliberalism.
In describing the outcome of the Congressional wargames, Rep. Mike Gallagher said that the U.S. used up almost all of its precision-guided missiles in a week. I assure you, China would not run out of missiles in a week.
Guess what happens after a week? Besides if the US would invade China there would be no reason for Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and plenty of other countries to provide support, I’d like to see how much your wunderwaffe will do there.
Sorry, forgot I was replying to a totally badass amazing military strategist big brain boi. I’ll take my librul tearz and go home :(
Will you address the claim made in the article which you clearly only read the headline of:
In describing the outcome of the Congressional wargames, Rep. Mike Gallagher said that the U.S. used up almost all of its precision-guided missiles in a week. I assure you, China would not run out of missiles in a week.
You seem to just assume that the US can somehow magically appear missiles into existance, but I mean think about it, is it the US or China that deindustrialized? Also, why does the US wargame conclude that at least two US aircraft carriers would be downed in the first two weeks?
Where did I say that? There’s a whole lot of conjecture in your statement. Nothing in the article gives the vastly different rules of each of the war game scenarios they ran. Also, congressional war games are often utter and complete bullshit, run by people that have no idea how the American military and its supply chain and contractors operate. All I ever said was that I think this shit would be worse for China than for us.
I tried to change my display name to “a totally badass amazing military strategist big brain boi” for the meme reply but I guess that was too long…
In seriousness though, do you really think we’re responding to you for your “librul tearz”?
That would have been an amazing name. And in serious? The person I responded to used ‘you liberals’ and ‘neoliberalism’ towards me, I was just mocking them.
If the US is doing so well at arming Ukraine and defeating Russia, then why are they losing? Why is Russia still taking land and why is this “counteroffensive” that the US and Ukraine talked so much about utterly failing?
implying ruzzian air superiority was crippledWell, no. Ukrainian forces themselves stated that they need real anti-air capabilities because those javelins are useless. Please stop getting your news from NAFO bots.
The US literally couldn’t achieve their goals in Afganistan. If they couldn’t beat the Taliban, what makes you think they could win against a super power?
US literally couldn’t achieve their goals in Afganistan.
Idk, comrade. They got plenty of money from opium trade, not to mention stealing government funds. Plus they ensured the region is destabilised and deindustrialized. Sounds like mission accomplished
Sounds like mission accomplished
You’re not entirely wrong, but you have to understand that there a couple levels to US foreign policy. One the material base you mentioned, where the US wants to take out possible competitors all over the globe. The other is that of the “idealists,” the neoconservatives who are the US foreign policy establishment. In what sense they are “conservative” has always been a little unclear, because their understanding of geopolitics is in a lot of ways ultra-left: the US is an armed base for freedom and liberalism, and if the country does not continually export, via war and color revolutions, its own version of “democracy,” that same democracy at home will wither away and die. During the Bush years, I thought it was just rhetoric, but the sheer suicidal stupidity of their actions in Ukraine has since convinced me they actually believe all of this. They tend to be opposed by the Brzenzkyites, who favor a much more hard-headed approach to foreign policy – the divide-and-conquer game essentially, such as Nixon played with China and the USSR. The Brzenzkyites were once the foreign policy establishment, but since the 90s their place has been mostly taken by the neoconservatives.
The neoconservatives have been enabled by US corporations and mega-conglomerates who, for the sake of immediate profits, want global competitors taken out; without this base, the neocons would never have risen to power. But because they are idealists, the neocons regularly go above and beyond all rational neccesity, promoting sanctions when diplomacy would have worked, wars when sanctions would have been sufficient, etc, all with a goal toward toppling “undemocratic” regimes and ushering in “democracy” – the latter never happens, but here we have the madman’s dilemma, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. This cycle of escalation creates mass death abroad and social and economic problems back at home, which latter do end up hurting the US ruling classin some degree. The long range goals of US corporations would probably be better served by the slow, methodical approach of Brzenzkyite foreign policy, but capital is by nature short-sighted and geared toward immediate profit. Thus, the US ruling class has created a monster it cannot well control, leading to a sort of prisoner’s dilemma. When neocon wars fail, as they always do, to achieve the objectives set out by their ideologues, capital profits; but that same failure makes the US populace disillusioned with the neocons, and creates political pressures that put the US ruling class in danger of losing their attack dog in Washington. That is why a big portion of the US elite were freaked out about Trump. His policies were not much different from those of his predecessors, but his election articulated a kind of right-wing populist distrust in the mechanisms of global American power, which many members of the US ruling class took as a sign of things to come.
But that’s the thing, isn’t it? The supposed disillusionment with the ruling “elites” (hate the term tbh, there’s nothing elite about those bastards) doesn’t lead to the population abandoning the espoused ideals. Instead it leads to supporting the same kind of filth, but in a different coat of paint. So now we’re stuck between neocons high off their own fumes, willing to nuke the world “in the name of democracy”, and cynical bastards who don’t bother pretending it’s all for profit. And both are deep in the pocket of the ruling class, and protected by the spook apparatus. Wunderbar.
Yes, but it isn’t sustainable. The US nowadays is mostly deindustrialized, without any substantive economy. Everything, and I do mean everything, is based on either financial speculation or the entertainment industry. The fact that the dollar is still the global currency has long insulated us from the worst effects of having an economy like that, since the governent can create “growth” via debt and by printing money. But for real wealth, the US is entirely dependent on production in other parts of the world, mainly China. As US actions undermine the dollar as the global currency, the day of reckoning for the US economy comes closer. And when enormous sectors of the US population start facing real grinding hardship – I mean “Russia in the 1990s” levels of grinding hardship – the propaganda will cease to be effective. To a certain extent, it is ceasing to be effective now, though the system is mostly working as intended. But cracks are showing, and those in control are starting to worry. The thing might ultimately be salvageable, if we did the sort of major political restructuring we did during World War II. But I promise you, there are no Roosevelts anymore.
Meh the US is usually pretty bad against an insurgent force using guerilla tactics (Viet Cong, Taliban, insurgents during Iraqi occupation). It’s great at engaging in large scale battles where there are clear targets though.
It’s great at engaging in large scale battles where there are clear targets though.
When was the last time the U.S. was in a war like that? WWII?
Edit: hit post mid sentence.
US failed in their push to the Yalu River against 1950s China. That was China at its weakest point when it was poor and unindustrialized. It was literally less developed than Sub Saharan Africa back then.
Now that China is the host to the world’s largest industrial sector. The Chinese make the best hypersonics, the best drones, and the best surface combatant ships. All produced in numbers impossible for US industry to match. What makes you think that the US will fare any better?
The Iran was the one the that dealt the mortal blow to Iraq. The Iran-Iraq War, the First Gulf War, and the sanctions left Iraq as a powder keg of religious and ethnic tensions. 12 years of sanctions on Iraq contributed to the defeat of their regular army more than anything the US military itself did.
The US never fought in the large scale operations that the Soviet Army did in WW2. No US operation rivaled the size of Operation Bagration or the Manchurian Strategic Offensive.
If the US loses or has severe trouble winning in every war they have been in for years even against small groups of farmers then I really don’t think they stand a chance against the PLA and its allies.
When did this happen?
Like?
[]None of those articles contain any actual evidence to support your claims, just assertions by US government institutions and US government-funded institutions like the CSIS and the USNI. If there’s no evidence, you can only judge the sources by their reputation, which is very close to rock bottom for all three
We’re currently watching our hardware from 2-3 generations ago annihilate Russia in Ukraine
“We” are seeing the literal opposite…
Good lord man. It’s like you’re from some alternate timeline where everything is backwards. Wherever you get your information from, drop it.
Those NATO trained Übersoldaten with Leopard 2A6s are really taking their sweet time against those shovel armed conscripts with Bukhankas.
Do they plan on severing that land bridge any time soon, I guess their Crimean summer beach party is canceled?
The only thing that was annihilated was the credibility of American economic warfare.
You’re not being realistic though.
Chinese military and personnel aren’t outdated. They have cutting edge ships, drone tech, and missile tech. The worst you can say is that they are too peaceful as a country so haven’t had as much chance to use their ordinance in the field. Training and war games exist though. Being in constant war for basically their entire existence hasn’t exactly improved the US’s track record.
As far as the Ukraine bit, US hardware is being blown through at an unprecedented rate. So much so that the US is running out of things to send Ukraine and is falling back on cluster munitions because, by their own admission, they don’t have anything else to give them. Ukraine continues to just take all of that and throw it away on Russian defenses for little to no gain. The US may have started the war to try to drain Russia of resources, but it functionally seems to be doing the opposite. Great news for the weapons manufacturing industry though.
Even if, hypothetically, we ignored all of that and accepted that China was outmatched militarily, going to war with China would be FAR worse for the US. Look at how much most of the EU is suffering under their own sanctions placed on Russia. Now imagine the same happens to the country that owns a huge amount of US debt, it would be absolute economic suicide even without a single round fired.
👐 Inshallah 👐
don’t threat with me with a good time
Then leave that country alone.
Please show me some government that officially considers Taiwan a country. The US certainly doesn’t
Paraguay officially considers Taiwan the legitimate government instead of PRC for whatever reason.
The person you replied to probably couldn’t find Paraguay on the map though.
right, there are a few small countries that consider the government on Taipei the legitimate government of all of China (IIRC it’s mainly due to trade deals that would be cut off if they switched recognition to Beijing), but I’ve yet to find a country that recognizes Taiwan as a country – not even the government on Taipei does
According to this article, they recognized PRC as legitimate in 1988, which makes me wonder what they consider themselves.
This is the classic conception: there is the single country that is China, with two regions (the mainland region and Taiwan region) and two governments on each region, each asserting their own rights as the sole and legitimate government of all China. The government on Taiwan lost this competition years ago, and now it has only 13 countries left in the world that recognize their legitimacy, one of which is the Vatican.
However, recent trends in Taiwan is to promote independence on the down-low, to change their mandatory history education to say Taiwan never had anything to do with China, not even historically, that it essentially sprang into existence some one hundred years ago, owes more thanks to Japan for its culture, and whatever cultural elements that are similar to the mainland are just because the mainland had been a large general influence all over Asia.
The DPP doesn’t dare to change the Constitution overtly to make Taiwan an independent country, though they keep treading the red line in their actions, because they know that the day they do so will be the day the CPC is forced into military action. The US also would not approve, as it wants Taiwan to be a manageable thorn in the CPC’s side, not an out-of-control element that will pull the US into a war it isn’t yet ready for.
>The US wants to invade Taiwan >The US military will fuck up its own military >Then leave that country aloneBut we want the U.S. military to be crippled though
If the US left Taiwan alone it would’ve already been unified with the rest of China peacefully.
lol
